## 1.1 Drivers of a biobased economy

Why is a transition towards a biobased economy needed?

The main drivers, which are discussed in more detail are:

- Climate change

- Energy and resource scarcity

- Rural and regional economic development

- Sustainable economic development in The Netherlands

1.1.1 First driver: Climate change

Climate change is happening now: temperatures are rising, rainfall patterns are shifting, glaciers and snow are melting, and the global mean sea level is rising. It is expected that these changes will continue, and that extreme weather events resulting in hazards such as floods and droughts will become more frequent and intense. Impacts and vulnerabilities for nature, the economy and our health differ across regions, territories and economic sectors in Europe. Climate change is caused by the emissions of greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane.

Global warming https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4H1N_yXBiA

In the next figure the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is depicted in the last thousands of years. Data from Antarctic ice cores reveals an interesting story for the past 400,000 years. During this period, CO2 and temperatures are closely correlated, which means they rise and fall together.

In November 2018 the concentrations of carbon dioxide reached 408 ppm, explaining the concerns over global warming. (In the graph the concentrations do not surpass 300 ppm, left axis).

For actual carbon dioxide concentration see: http://co2now.org/

Combating climate change became a more important element of the political agenda after the signing of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Since then, a range of measures has been identified, and implemented, to reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. Although some measures focus on energy saving, increasing attention has been given to the production of renewable energy. The common feature of solar, wind, hydraulic and bioenergy is that they thrive on natural forces. In the case of bioenergy plants (biomass!) absorb carbon dioxide to produce glucose while exhaling oxygen. Therefore an economy based on biomass utilization can result in a decrease of greenhouse gas emissions or at least no increase of greenhouse gasses. In 2015 the Paris Agreement was signed and the central aim was to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius. A follow-up climate change conference was organised by the UN in Katowice (Poland) in December 2018. However, more effort is needed to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Why is COP24 So Important? - Conference on Climate Change https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKBtWXJfnjE

Bioenergy came into focus as an option to combat climate change in industrialized countries towards the end of the 20th century, first attempts being made by countries with large natural resources (Sweden, Finland and Germany). The EU embraced bioenergy as an element of its climate change programme in 2005, giving bioenergy a large momentum. Since then, biofuel and other bioenergy programmes have been implemented in a number of other countries, including the USA (Langeveld et al, 2012).

1.1.2. Second driver: Energy and resource scarcity

Our economy today is completely dependent on fossil resources. Crude oil is found trapped in some of the sedimentary rocks of the earth's crust. How these fossil resources were formed is illustrated in the figure below.

Millions of years ago, huge numbers of microscopic animals and plants - plankton - died and fell to the bottom of the sea. Their remains were covered by mud. As the mud sediment was buried by more sediment, it started to change into rock as the temperature and pressure increased. The plant and animal remains were ‘cooked’ by this process, and slowly changed into crude oil.

Fossil resources has been fundamental to industrialization. They delivered energy but also served as basic resource for producing materials such as plastics, paints, floor coverings, pharmaceuticals, shampoos, clothing, asphalt etc.

The limits of this resource had been foreseen and discussed back in the 1950s when Hubbert (1956), developer of the Peak Oil theory, made the first extrapolations of future oil production rates. The point in time when oil production within a given area (a single oil field, a country, a region or the entire earth) reaches the maximum rate of production was later named ‘peak oil’. History has shown that in practice it is impossible to raise the rate of production after a decline. Hubbert said: “The amount of oil will never be completely finished, but the availability of oil will decline”. In other words: at a certain point in time there may still be oil but can we extract it? Peak oil and oil demand, shortages will lead to higher prices for fossil fuels.

Let's take a look at the Dutch situation. The Groningen gas field is a giant natural gas field located near Slochteren in the province Groningen in the eastern part of The Netherlands. Discovered in 1959, it is the largest natural gas field in Europe and the tenth-largest in the world. Substantial income from the national gas endowment has been part of the Dutch government’s operational budget since 1963. The discoveries of oil at Schoonebeek (1943) and gas at Groningen (1959) have had a tremendous impact on the post-war economic recovery of The Netherlands.

Does the Peak Oil theory apply to the Dutch gas bubble? Although much effort is invested to unlock unconventional gas reservoirs large enough to delay the unfolding of a peak scenario for Dutch gas, the answer is cautious be yes. This is illustrated in the next figure.

The graph shows stacked on top of one another the production profiles of the Groningen Field, offshore small fields, and onshore small fields. However, the last years there was another aspect that influences the extraction of Dutch gas in the future. Earthquakes due to the extraction of natural gas made the Dutch government decide to lower the coming years the amount of extracted gas and finally to stop with the extraction in 2030.

In the figure below it is clearly illustrated that the energy consumption has increased immensely the past two centuries worldwide. So, two conflicting issues can be ascertained: a decrease in the availability of fossil fuels and an increase in the demand of energy worldwide.

Summarizing, while fossil oil has been available in sufficient amounts at reasonable prices for decades, its position now has become more erratic. Doubts have been cast on the availability of fossil oil as the major energy and material source for the decades to come. In the light of a growing worldwide demand, it is a must to diversicate in the available energy and material sources.

Fossil fuel dependency

Depending on national policy, industrial countries try to secure their energy supply by reducing their dependency on oil imports. This holds especially for the USA and is partly explained by the fact that oil exporters are organised in, and operate under, a cartel: the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). While the formal objective of OPEC has been to stabilize the oil market, it has also been successful in maintaining oil prices at a rather high level. The wish to reduce the dependency on oil-exporting states is further explained by the fact that many of them are located in the Middle East, adding to political and military tensions. There are, however, other geopolitical reasons to limit dependency on oil-exporting countries. One of them is that some exporters seek to use their position as a major oil exporter for political leverage in regional political disputes with its neighbouring states. Oil exporters, finally, often show a (perceived) lack of democratic values, many being run by dictatorial (sometimes military) regimes (Langeveld et al, 2012).

1.1.3 Third driver: rural and regional economical development

The production of biomass is preferably connected on site to the conversion and processing of biomass. This way long-distance transport can be prevented and loops can be closed on a local scale. This implies that the rural agricultural areas will not only function as production sites of raw material but also as production facilities of products with added value. So, biobased innovation can result in the creation of new employment in regions in need of an economic impulse.

Example One

As a first example is selected a proven technology for the processing of biomass waste flows like natural and roadside grass. The company NewFoss located in the province Noord-Brabant in The Netherland has developed a technology to biorefine biomass resources. They can handle 40,000 tons of biomass with an output production of 11,000 tons of biobased lignocellulosic fibre (dry matter). The idea is based on washing of the biomass waste flow to remove material like sand and stones. Hereafter the cells are biologically opened and the intracellular components are released. Subsequently the liquid is extracted and the remaining biomass contains fibre rich material. Huhtamaki, a packaging company, produces biobased egg carton which contains 50% lignocellulosic fibre. Natural grass is obtained from Staatsbosbeheer (The Netherlands).

In The Netherlands many biobased initiatives look for cooperation with other companies, public institutions and (applied) universities in their own region.

Example Two

Bioethanol in Brazil is providing employment to over one million people. In a country lacking a social security system to provide a minimum income, unemployment equates to poverty and deep misery, and these jobs often play a crucial role. It is true that many of these jobs, that is, those related to the harvesting of sugar cane, are temporary, and work in the cane fields is physically demanding and threatening to health. It has, however, been argued that income from the biofuel industry often helps the poor and deprived to gain a basic income. The President of Brazil has advocated biofuel production as a major impetus for development in some of the poorest regions of Brazil. Other countries could use bioenergy production to generate employment in underdeveloped regions, and bioenergy holds promise especially for rural areas where economic opportunities currently are scarce (Langeveld et al, 2012).

Brazil is satisfying its fuel needs with bio-ethanol from sugar cane

Example Three

Mention in this short video how the Head of Operations of Clariant's Straubing biorefinery, explains how their new plant uses the latest technology to produce fuel from residues left over after the wheat harvest. The benefit is a sustainable energy source that substitutes for imported petrol and provides additional income for local farmers.

Fuel from agricultural residues https://www.youtube.com/embed/LAoy0kwK7e0

DSM-POET and local economical development in Iowa https://www.youtube.com/embed/GlaAoGDQNPk

1.1.4 Fourth driver: Development of new entrepreneurship between agriculture en chemistry sector in The Netherlands

The development of the biobased economy in The Netherlands is supported by two matching developments:

1. Strong preference of consumers for "green" products. Biobased products can often be labelled "green".
2. A rapid development of sustainable technologies, such as green chemistry, fermentation and the use of enzymes.

So, consumers ask for sustainable products and materials while at the same time the technology is more and more able to comply.

In comparison to other countries, the Dutch agriculture is one of the most productive in the world. Moreover, the Dutch chemistry sector belongs to the top of the world. Agro and Chemistry: two totally different sectors which can profit both enormously from a strong collaboration in a biobased economy. The expectation is that the chemistry will be increasingly oriented on agriculture as the deliverer of commodities or feed stocks.

An example is the Biobased Delta. This is an alliance of Dutch provinces, businesses and knowledge centres in the delta region of North Brabant, Zeeland and South Holland.

Watch this video about the biobased delta.

For more initiatives, have a look at Agro & Chemistry: